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Santa Barbara Real Estate Update ~ April 2011

Analysis of Santa Barbara Real Estate through the end of April ‘08 for Santa Barbara, Montecito, Hope Ranch, Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta

Through the month of April ’11 for the Home Estate/PUD market in the Santa Barbara area including Montecito, Hope Ranch, Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta sales dipped to 68 from 86 in March but up from 49 in February. But, while the numbers of sales slid the median sales price rose from $727,000 in March to $870,000 in April. The primary reason the median sales price rose is that sales in the $500,000 to $700,000 went down from 28 in March to 16 in April with sales below $1 million falling from 53 in March to 39 in April. Sales from $1 to $2 million went up however from 17 to 19 while sales from $2 million dropped from 13 to 10 with the primary decline being sales over $5 million which fell from 5 to 3.

Comparing the 1st 4 months of 2010 with 2011 we see that sales are down by about 8% with 245 through April ’11 and the median sales price for the year has fallen by about 4% to $810,000. The numbers of escrows are up however going from 308 last year to 329 this year for a 6.8% rise. Other important numbers include the sales price to original list price ratio which has gone up from 79% last year to 87% this year and the days on the market which has declined from 97 to 84.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down from 26 last year to 22 with the median sales price falling from $835,000 to $617,500. The numbers of escrows are way up however going from 19 with a median list price of $679,000 to 31 with a median list price of $737,000. In Montecito, sales are up from 39 last year to 43 with the median sales price dipping a little from $2.45 million to $2.35 million. But, the numbers of escrows are way up going from 44 in ’10 with a $2.625 million list price to 66 with a $2.537 median list price.

The East Side of Santa Barbara has sales down from 69 last year to 61 and the median sales price dropping slightly from $925,000 to $920,000. The numbers of escrows are up a little however going from 87 last year with a median list price of $1.06 million to 89 this year with a $977,500 median list price. For the West Side, sales are down a bit dropping from 58 to 57 with the median sales price down a lot from $800,000 in ’10 to $682,000 in ‘11. The numbers of escrows are also down from 70 to 67 with the median list price on those escrows falling from $824,000 to $745,000.

In Hope Ranch sales have dropped from 9 in ’10 to 7 in ’11 with the median sales price going down by about half from $3.5 million last year to $1,787,500 this year. The numbers of escrows are up however rising from 8 with a median list price of $2.475 million to 11 with a median list price of just under $2 million.

Goleta South sales are way off from 26 in ’10 to 16 in ’11 with the median sales price falling from $625,000 to $602,500. The numbers of escrows are also off, falling from 34 with a $699,000 median list price to 27 with a median list price of $567,000. Goleta North has sales up by 2 from 49 in ’10 to 51 in ’11 but the median sales price dropped from $715,000 to $699,000. The numbers of escrows are down from 65 last year with a $749,500 median list price to 54 with a $682,000 median list price.

Escrows continue to pile up in the greater Santa Barbara area with about 100 showing up in April and the median list price on those escrows has bounced back up to around $870,000 after being below $800,000 in March. The $500,000 to $700,000 market fell off in April due to a lack of inventory in that price range but there is still a substantial amount of activity farther up in the market. The spring time listings are starting to appear with the overall inventory rising about 15% over the March numbers.

For condos in April, sales fell from March when there were 21 ending the month with 17 sales. The median sales price also continued falling to $390,000 down from $399,000 in March. That number represents the second lowest median sales price in the last 12 months falling from a high of $475,000 in October 2010. Through the 1st 4 months of 2011 there have been 70 sales down by about 28% from 2010 and the median sales price of $399,000 is off by about 6.6% from the previous year. The numbers of escrows have also fallen from 116 last year to 99 this year for a 14.7% decline with the median list price on those escrows down by 14%. The sales price to original list price ratio has remained stable however in the 90th percentile but the average days it takes to get an accepted offer rose from 69 in ’10 to 82 in ’11.

The sales that occurred in April are concentrated in the lower end with 12 of the 17 closed escrows below $500,000. There was 1 sale over $1 million however on the East Side close to the beach and then 1 in the $900,000 range for a condo close to Paseo Nuevo.

Unlike single family homes, the inventory for condos did not surge forward significantly in April remaining around 150 units for sale with a $575,000 median list price and an approximately $780,000 average list price.

Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down by 1 from 20 last year to 19 this year but the median sales price fell from $386,500 to $350,000. The numbers of escrows are even however with 25 in ‘10 with a $427,000 median list price and 24 in ’11 with a $363,000 median list price. Montecito condo sales are down from 6 to 5 with the median sales price going from $1,087,500 to $645,000. The numbers of escrows is down even further falling from 7 with a $1,075,000 median list price to 4 with a median list price of $998,000.

The East Side of Santa Barbara has sales down from 21 to 11 with the median sales price dropping from $430,000 to $420,000. The numbers of escrows are also down from 20 with a $529,700 median list price to 14 with a $545,000 median list price. On the West Side of town sales are down from 21 to 13 with a median sales price dropping from $464,500 to $425,000. The numbers of escrows are down from 30 with a $497,000 median list price to 24 with a $409,500 median list price.

Goleta South sales are up from 17 to 19 and median sales price is up from $295,000 to $369,000. The numbers of escrows are also up from 21 with a $296,800 median list price to 23 with a $350,000 median list price. Goleta North has sales down by half from 14 to 8 with the median sales price down from $405,000 to $370,000. The numbers of escrows is also down from 18 with a $419,000 median list price to 13 with a $379,000 median list price.

The condo market continues to sputter with both the numbers of sales and the median sales price dropping for the month. The median sales price through the end of April 2011 continues to hover right around the 2002 level with no signs that it’s going to be moving up any time soon.

On the other side of the coin, the single family home market, despite being behind last year’s numbers of sales looks like it is stabilizing and may even be moving forward. The median sales price after dropping significantly in March rebounded nicely to the mid $800,000 level and with the numbers of escrows piling up the housing market should start moving forward.

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